Travis: Segment 15

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To Calculate

1. In slide 4, we used "posterior predictive p-value" to get the respective p-values 1.0e-13, .01, .12, and .0013. What if we had mistakenly just used the maximum likelihood estimate r=0.003, instead of integrating over r? What p-values would we have obtained?

To Think About

1. Can you think of a unified way to handle the Towne family problem (estimating r and deciding which family members are likely "non-paternal") without trimming the data? We'll show one such method in a later segment, but there is likely more than one possible good answer.

Class Activity

We had a surprise quiz (here) as preparation for the mid-term exam (which will be after Spring Break). Students worked individually for 45 minutes; then, each of two teams tried to produce the best composite answer sheet.

Here are the quiz solutions.