Segment 15. The Towne Family - Again

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Watch this segment

(Don't worry, what you see statically below is not the beginning of the segment. Press the play button to start at the beginning.)

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The direct YouTube link is

Links to the slides: PDF file or PowerPoint file


To Calculate

1. In slide 4, we used "posterior predictive p-value" to get the respective p-values 1.0e-13, .01, .12, and .0013. What if we had mistakenly just used the maximum likelihood estimate r=0.003, instead of integrating over r? What p-values would we have obtained?

To Think About

1. Can you think of a unified way to handle the Towne family problem (estimating r and deciding which family members are likely "non-paternal") without trimming the data? We'll show one such method in a later segment, but there is likely more than one possible good answer.

Class Activity

We divided into three teams. Each team prepared a single solution set for last year's surprise quiz of around this date.

Here are the three solutions:

Team 1

Group Two: The Towne Family - Again, Class Activity

Team 3 scanned PDF

Every class member gets to vote for TWO of these for which is best, your own team and one other. You must vote for two, not just 1. Please edit this page to add your (screen) name to two of the following lists:

Team 1 votes: Vsub, Jonathan, Daniel, Aaron, Deepesh, Sanmit, Todd, Nick, Eleisha

Team 2 votes: Todd, Eleisha

Team 3 votes: Vsub, Jonathan, Daniel, Aaron, Deepesh, Sanmit, Nick

Here is Bill's solution set from last year. (I wasn't trying to be as complete or neat as I expect this year's teams to be.) Solutions

Voting Comments

Vsub: Team-1: 8/9 (lacking in explanations). Team-2: 6.5/9 (lacks explanation, nice plots, too concise on 6,7) Team-3: 7/9 (incomplete ans3; incorrect answers 6,7; good detailed derivations). Vote preferenceorder: Team1 > Team3 > Team2