Segment 15. The Towne Family - Again
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The direct YouTube link is http://youtu.be/Y-i0CN15X-M
1. In slide 4, we used "posterior predictive p-value" to get the respective p-values 1.0e-13, .01, .12, and .0013. What if we had mistakenly just used the maximum likelihood estimate r=0.003, instead of integrating over r? What p-values would we have obtained?
To Think About
1. Can you think of a unified way to handle the Towne family problem (estimating r and deciding which family members are likely "non-paternal") without trimming the data? We'll show one such method in a later segment, but there is likely more than one possible good answer.
We divided into three teams. Each team prepared a single solution set for last year's surprise quiz of around this date.
Here are the three solutions:
Every class member gets to vote for TWO of these for which is best, your own team and one other. You must vote for two, not just 1. Please edit this page to add your (screen) name to two of the following lists:
Team 1 votes: Vsub, Jonathan, Daniel, Aaron, Deepesh, Sanmit, Todd, Nick, Eleisha, Andrea, Rene
Team 2 votes: Todd, Eleisha, Elad
Team 3 votes: Vsub, Jonathan, Daniel, Aaron, Deepesh, Sanmit, Nick, Andrea, Elad, Rene
Here is Bill's solution set from last year. (I wasn't trying to be as complete or neat as I expect this year's teams to be.) Solutions
Vsub: Team-1: 8/9 (lacking in explanations). Team-2: 6.5/9 (lacks explanation, nice plots, too concise on 6,7) Team-3: 7/9 (incomplete ans3; incorrect answers 6,7; good detailed derivations). Vote preferenceorder: Team1 > Team3 > Team2